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October 2018 - Bongiorno Financial Update

What's in this issue?

  • Whether a recession is imminent or not in the US, and more broadly globally, is critically important in terms of whether a major bear market in shares is on the way.

  • Five key global charts to watch in getting a handle on whether a major downturn is on the way are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.

  • While risks have increased – particularly in the US where the economic cycle is more advanced and around the $US and emerging countries and global trade – our assessment remains that a major US/global downturn still remains a way off.

  • Which supports our assessment that notwithstanding periodic corrections – including through the seasonally weak period for share markets that we are now in – the broad trend in share markets is likely to remain up.

We hope you enjoy this issue.

Kind regards,

ANTOINETTE BONGIORNO 
LL.B. B.Com. CFP DipFP A.S.A.

Level 2 
431 St Kilda Road 
Melbourne VIC 3004 
ph) 03 9863 3316 
fax) 03 9820 2518

Australian Financial Services Licence No 238977

Antoinette Bongiorno